On 9th January 2019 the House of Lords debated the Government’s EU Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration. The Archbishop of Canterbury, Most Revd Justin Welby, spoke in the debate. His full speech, and extracts of the speeches of others across the three days of debate, are below:
The Archbishop of Canterbury: My Lords, one of the aspects of being a Bishop in your Lordships’ House is the inherent link to local communities through our dioceses. My own diocese being Canterbury, which covers the eastern end of Kent, I shall start by speaking for a moment about the small picture, about local issues in Kent, as an example that applies in many other places, that would be exacerbated and strained by the impact of a no-deal Brexit which serve as a reminder to us all of the seriousness of the challenges we face should we, perhaps by default rather than design, leave the EU without an agreement.
We have all seen in the media—it has been referred to by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, and the noble Lord, Lord Newby—the artificially created traffic blip, rather than traffic jam, which was staged on Monday albeit with only 89 vehicles. In the case of this experiment, the reality we face is much worse. The channel ports handle over 10,000 lorries a day, so that 89 represented less than 1% of the flow.
Aside from delivery issues, if there are border delays as a result of no deal, which will of course impact on the rest of the country, in practical terms these lorries will take up an enormous amount of space. Anecdotally, one day’s lorry supply would stretch from Dover to Leicester. Furthermore, if 10,000 lorries are stuck in east Kent daily, 10,000 drivers will need to use the local facilities to eat, drink and go to the bathroom. That will have a major impact on local towns and villages, as was seen during Operation Stack three or four years ago.
Support services will be physically unable to access those in need. That was also our recent experience. If roads are logjammed people will be unable to get to work, small businesses, tourist sites and haulage companies will suffer very severely and go out of business, with an increase in unemployment. The burden on local communities and their infrastructure—
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean: Did the most reverend Primate by chance hear the chief executive of Calais ports on the radio this morning? He said that there was no question of there being any delays at Calais because preparations had been made. Therefore, is it responsible to continue to spread these scare stories?
The Archbishop of Canterbury: My Lords, I did not have the privilege of hearing the chief executive of Calais, but I did have the privilege of talking to the chief executive of Kent County Council, of Canterbury City Council and others involved in small businesses in Kent over the past week—and very significant numbers of them. I take my evidence from our own people in this country, and it is evidence.
Noble Lords might remember the effects of Operation Stack in 2015 after strikes in Calais disrupted thousands of lorries bound for cross-channel ferries. It cost the local economy £1.5 million a day. It cost the country £250 million a day. Operation Brock, which will supersede Operation Stack, can only cost more. Back in 2015, arterial roads were blocked which had a significant impact on local communities.
“No man is an island”,
as John Donne tells us, and significant disruption in one industry will invariably have a knock-on effect across the community and eventually across the country. This is not Project Fear or projected fear. It is an account of what happened in 2015.
Having spoken to local officials, I have heard time and again that Kent does not currently have the structural capacity to cope with a no-deal Brexit or time to prepare. The last time that customs checks were made for UK/EU trade, in 1993, before the EU single market, there were between 2 million and 2.5 million customs clearance documentation entries. Since 1993, Dover has seen significant increases in freight, and Eurotunnel is also now in operation. Consequently, post Brexit, there could be an estimated 25 million customs clearance documentation entries. Before 1993, 300 customs officers were located in Kent, 125 at Dover. There are now only 24 in east Kent, covering both the port of Dover and Eurotunnel. In 1993, there were 185 customs clearance agents to do the paperwork. Today, there are only 17 and only five of them operate a 24-hours-a-day service.
The transition in the event of no deal may possibly be without difficulty. We are assured by those who support it that it will be, and many of the projections of two years ago have not come to pass. But experience in 2016 and 2015 indicate a very material risk. To take that risk without assured and adequate mitigation is not a moral decision.
That brings me to my second point about moral responsibility. The decision is rightly with Parliament and specifically with the other place, but with parliamentary sovereignty comes responsibility for the welfare of those represented and legislated for. We face not just practical choices but moral decisions alongside our highest responsibility to protect our poorest and most vulnerable. The burden, therefore, must be on those who believe that no deal is a reasonable option to prove that it would not have a significant negative impact on people such as those in the diocese that I serve who already face hardship.
My third point is on the adversarial nature of the process. I spoke a little about this in December with regard to reconciliation. The most serious and visible aspect is the personalised nature of the threats outside the House against Members of the other place especially, whether personally, online or by other means. These threats have rightly united all sides in stating that this is an attack on democracy itself. Our Christian heritage and the heritage of other faiths and non-faith traditions call for us to treat others as we would wish to be treated—the golden rule. Christ himself went on to call for love for enemies. That does not mean the absence of passionate difference but calls for respect for human dignity. That requires active leadership— politically and in security against such threats—and it must require now, not after 29 March, examples of reconciliation by public figures who have differed most profoundly during this painful process over the past two or three years. That is leadership.
My final point is on the nature of the decision now. It may not feel like it and we may not wish it but we are still near the beginning of the Brexit journey, not at the end of the process. The decisions made over the next week will not be finalised for all eternity but are a foundation for further discussion and negotiation down the line.
There has to be an agreement in which all accept the need to deliver the “will of the people” that was expressed in the referendum, while also recognising that when it was expressed in such a close result, there is a duty to build in compromise—an inevitability, albeit unwelcome to some.
If not, there will be by default a no-deal Brexit. That outcome would be not only a political and practical failure but a moral one equally as serious as ignoring the result of the referendum entirely.
A second referendum is not my preference but if Parliament fails in the task entrusted to it, then regrettably it may be required. This is about more than Brexit, and Parliament must not show itself unfit for the job.
Parliamentarians must be able to look back at this time and say honestly to the people of this country that we put them, their choices, their welfare and their communities above the politics and ideology that can seem so all-consuming here in Westminster.
As we embrace the challenge, which is hope-filled and exciting, of reimagining our country and its structures over the next few years and months, I hope politicians will take it upon themselves to make these crucial decisions, not only with the grand vision but with the small picture—the effect on local people, communities and businesses—in mind.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con): My Lords, I am honoured to speak after the most reverend Primate, whose voice is much valued in the land in these troubled times.
Lord Hain (Lab):…In the event of no deal, the European Commission’s own package of 14 contingency measures, which are allowed by the WTO, specifically warns of delays to the transport of goods—hence the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury’s warnings—because of the need for checks on all UK livestock exports and the application of customs duties and taxes on goods moving between the UK and EU…
Lord Fox (LD):…I have heard the process described as “self-harm”, yet who will really be harmed by the decisions made in this building? As the most reverend Primate said just now, it is a moral issue. In the main, we are not the ones whose futures are at risk; the vulnerable and least well off are those most at risk…
Lord Cormack (Con):…The most important single point that has been made was in the very notable speech of the most reverend Primate, when he reminded us that we are not at the end of the Brexit process. We are not even at the beginning of the end of it; we are at the beginning of the beginning. We have to get on with it…
…I recognise that leavers cannot dictate terms from the club or institution that they are leaving. But I also recognise that it is completely morally wrong—the most reverend Primate touched on this—to take risks for other people. Take risks for yourself, but not for others. One of the most interesting speeches during the recent Christmas Recess was made last week at the Oxford Farming Conference by the Secretary of State, Michael Gove. He said that no deal would mean great uncertainty, and he even used the word “chaos”, for farmers. I wish he had thought of that two or three years ago. Nevertheless, far better a sinner who repenteth. If he can say that, we have great knowledge that that would be the worst of all outcomes.
We then come to the second referendum. The noble Lord, Lord Kerr, spoke in favour of it, and the most reverend Primate did not totally dismiss it. But just look across the road from your Lordships’ House. See the passions that have been aroused over the last two years, and particularly in recent months. See what would happen with another divisive referendum…
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con): My Lords, I have huge admiration for the noble Lord, Lord Hennessy, but I am afraid I do not agree with much that he had to say, surprisingly enough. It has been a very interesting debate, in which he talked about angels and the horsemen of the apocalypse and the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury talked about the arrangement for lorries crossing the border from Calais, in contradiction to the man who actually runs the Port of Calais…
Baroness Nicholson of Winterbourne (Con)…So why is this dramatic change required? Why should we pursue this tricky and perilous alteration to our European status? The most reverend Primate the Archbishop fears that it will harm millions and all end in tears. The reason, of course, lies within the European Union itself. It has grabbed competences far wider—more intrusively invading and destroying rights and privileges, customs and local ways and means—than ever before…
Viscount Trenchard (Con)...As the most reverend Primate said on 5 December, quoting from Proverbs:
“Where there is no vision, the people perish”.
I would like to see more vision, more optimism and more confidence shown by the Government. This is not a damage limitation exercise. It is a great opportunity for this country to revert to our natural state as a strong advocate of competitive free trade throughout the world, which is the best way to achieve economic growth and prosperity for future generations…
Lord Lamont of Lerwick (Con)…No deal or trading on WTO terms has never been my first option, and I do not say that there are no issues, but it has been ridiculously demonised—almost literally so by the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury, who seems to think that anyone who supports it should go to hell. No deal might be challenging, and I accept that there might be problems with it, but the director-general of the WTO, Mr Azevêdo, has said that changing to WTO terms, “doesn’t mean that we’ll have a vacuum or a disruption”. There have been a lot of Don Quixotes tilting at imaginary windmills…
Baroness Pinnock (LD):…as this House is aware, there has been a rise in all forms of hate crime since the referendum in 2016; this has not abated. Community cohesion is, and will be, challenging for those of us who strive to see all people treated equally and with dignity. As the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury has said, this is indeed a moral issue…
Lord Brennan (Lab):…The most reverend Primate yesterday spoke to experts in Kent. They have used past, actual experience as evidence of what might happen in the future in order to show that no deal will be a real and material risk to Kent and the country. That is a topic we should be on top of and that the country should understand…
Lord King of Bridgwater (Con)…I want to make one point, in advance of my noble friend leaping to her feet. It is simply this. The best speech I have heard in these debates was made by the most reverend Primate, whom I am delighted to see in his place. He said that we have a moral responsibility. Of course it is right that the other place has to take the decision, but we have a moral responsibility to advise—and this time we want to go forward as a country. Too much anger and too much hatred have developed over this. We need to resolve this matter now. We need to respect the majority decision, but we need respect for the minority as well. I hope that those on the Benches opposite will see that the opportunity to come together, agree a deal and go forward is in the national interest…
The Earl of Kinnoull (CB)…In his speech on 5 December, the most reverend Primate talked of the importance of healing, and last week spoke of the need for reconciliation. In both instances the whole House agreed with him. I fear that another referendum stands a substantial chance of seeing considerable unrest and the opening and reopening of many awful wounds—Anna Soubry MP got a personal gypsy’s warning of this, which reached the front page of the Times last week. In any event, I agree with the many noble Lords who have suggested that such a referendum is unlikely to settle the issue permanently…
Lord Lilley (Con)…The other concrete concern came from the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury, While temporal Lords have been demonising a WTO Brexit with odium theologicum, it took a Lord spiritual to bring us down to earth with the request for proof that it would not have a significant negative effect on people in his diocese, such as when Operation Stack has been in force. Of course it is impossible to prove a negative or that Operation Stack will never be necessary regardless of Brexit, as it has been invoked on 211 days over the past 18 years, although without any archiepiscopal moral censure of those responsible.
I can explain why Brexit should not add significantly to such delays. First, HMRC expects roughly the same number of physical checks of vehicles at Dover as at present because its checks are based on risk, notably of smuggling tobacco, drugs and illegal immigrants, none of which will increase because of Brexit. Moreover, HMRC promises to prioritise flow over compliance. That means waving lorries through even if their declarations are incomplete.
The concern in the past has been not about Dover but about Calais. However, the good news, brought to the most reverend Primate’s attention by my noble friend Lord Forsyth, is that the chairman of Calais ports says that they too will have no more checks than at present. They are determined and confident that traffic will flow freely—not to be nice to Britain but to avoid losing trade to Zeebrugge, Rotterdam and Antwerp. They are installing three extra lorry lanes, an inspection post for animals away from the port and a scanner for trains moving at 30 kilometres an hour. Monsieur Puissesseau was indignant that the British Government were—quite unnecessarily in his view—hiring ferries to take trade away from his port to other ports…
Lord Triesman (Lab): My Lords, at the start of this debate, the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury expressed two objectives. The first was, rightly, that there should be proper regard for real facts on the ground. He cited east Kent and elsewhere. The second, also right, was a desire to see a deeply fractured nation drawn back together by some form of reconciliation…
…Across the street from us, fascists scream at MPs. I cannot speak at first hand of the place where either of our most reverend Primates celebrates his religion, but what has happened when my place of worship must be surrounded continually by large numbers of guards? Is this what we must live with now? I would rather face the struggle against nationalism because we cannot run from it, but I offer a sincere challenge to those who say that conciliation is possible; the noble Lord, Lord Russell of Liverpool, made a similar point.
It is plain that, until the last few days, the Prime Minister has not tried to reach out to others, and has then tried mainly to frighten them; nor has the leader of my party reached out to anyone. Our calamity has not found our Churchill and Attlee. We do not seem that grown up. Perhaps someone with the moral authority to do so can take the kind of approach taken by Desmond Tutu: to convene urgently an effort to find common ground, hopefully with the broader and more deliberative discussion advocated by my noble friend Lady Armstrong, between crashing out and rebuilding a decent, united United Kingdom. There is little time and I see no sign of the Commons Front Bench doing it. Were the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury here, I would ask him—I will have to ask the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of York instead—whether the Church is up to the challenge of carrying out reconciliation, not just calling for it…
Baroness Manningham-Buller (CB)…Whatever the outcome tomorrow, and from what follows, I hope we will listen to the most reverend Primate and try to heal our nation. To do that, let us stop abusing and stick to the arguments, the reality and the evidence, not the myths, the lies and the magic.
Lord Radice (Lab)…I am aware of the possible dangers of a second referendum. We have heard some eloquent ones from the most reverend Primate. However, if there is no parliamentary majority for any proposal, it could be necessary to consult the voters again on the options, including remaining in the EU. In order to make sufficient time for such a referendum, we should also have to ask for a delay in the implementation of Article 50…
The Advocate-General for Scotland (Lord Keen of Elie) (Con)…Looking to ourselves, we perhaps need to remind ourselves that the referendum was not a choice between good and evil or between ruin and redemption. My noble friend Lord Forsyth of Drumlean suggested at one point that the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury had implied that all those who voted leave would go to hell. I do not believe that he suggested any such thing.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con): I suggested no such thing.
Lord Keen of Elie: I apologise, but that was my understanding.
The Archbishop of Canterbury: That would be above my pay grade.
Lord Keen of Elie: I was going to say that, even if the most reverend Primate had contemplated such a thing, he would have left room for repentance…
The Church of England in Parliament 
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